08.02.2018

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The Simple Politics guide to next week in Parliament.
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Well, this is exciting.


Longterm readers will know how much I enjoy telling you exactly what's going to happen next week. I love nothing more than reading around, listening to debates, absorbing twitter and catching up on all the news services, before boiling it all down for you, dear reader.

The trouble is, nobody knows what's going to happen next week.  It all comes down to this:
 

Will Theresa May negotiate the 'alternative arrangements' to the backstop?


Deal

 
If she successfully does that, then she will bring the newly reformed deal to the Commons on Monday or Tuesday.  The Leader of the House, Andrea Leadsom, would then set out a new timetable for the week.  Presumably, debate on Tuesday and Wednesday with a vote on Thursday, or maybe debate all week and voting the week after.
 

No Deal


If she's not successful, she's not going to bring the deal back to MPs. Instead, she gives a statement to the Commons after PMQs on Wednesday. Then, the next day there will be debate and votes on a motion.
 

Best Guess


Given how abrupt the EU have been at the time of writing, it looks pretty hard for her to get any 'alternative arrangements' agreed to. If she does so it will be a piece of pretty astonishing negotiating.

I think by far the most likely outcome is that on Thursday night, Valentines, MPs find themselves voting on a series of amendments that look a lot like the ones two weeks before. We'll have no 'no-deal', we'll have another go at 2nd vote (even though that campaign seems to have lost its way for the moment), we'll have extend Article 50, we'll have leave now. 

The Greatest Hits, if you will. If you like Brexit options, you'll love this.

Sunday - Marr and Ridge. If we're near a deal, they'll be all over it. If we're not, the amendments that will be up for votes on Thursday might begin to percolate live on TV. Either way, it should be pretty interesting.
 
Monday -  Either: PM victoriously presents a deal. For this to happen she would have had to achieve some pretty big concessions. 
Or: MPs debate a very dull and technical Bill on financial services. 

Tuesday - Either: After an extra day, the PM swings into the Commons and lays down a deal that everyone loves.
Or: MPs debate 

Wednesday - Either: by now we'd definitely on the debate on Big Vote, if her Mayness has layed out her deal earlier in the week
Or: PM makes a statement as to what's going on. That'll be 90 minutes or so. Followed by various bits and bobs. 

Thursday-  Either: debate ahead of Big Vote (maybe tonight or maybe next week).
Or: Debate on a series of non-binding amendments before votes this evening.

Friday - Almost certainly nothing.
Our pick of the laws being debated in the Parliament next week.
(this week these are all in the Lords)
Mental Capacity (Amendment) Bill

This Bill will amend part of the Mental Capacity Act 2005 which governs the process by which people who do not have the mental capacity to make decisions (such as people with dementia, learning disabilities and/or brain injuries) are taken into care. The Bill aims to reduce the burden on local authorities and make the process of assessing people’s care needs simpler. However, disability charities say this Bill could put people’s human rights at risk by removing a layer of legal protection in the form of independent assessments.
More details
Crime (Overseas Production Orders) Bill [HL]
Electronic information is increasingly important for the investigation and prosecution of criminal offences. The companies providing services which generate and store electronic data, such as internet service providers, are often located outside the UK. This puts this type of data beyond the current reach of existing UK court orders. This Bill would enable law enforcers in the UK to obtain data from foreign service providers in countries with which the UK already has judicial cooperation.
More details
Er...

That's it. I haven't got three Bills to tell you about this week.

If it's any consolation, there is quite a lot of Brexit chat.

What? That's no consolation? Oh. Sorry.

 
I'm back out on tour with my fabulous family comedy politics show!
If you live near any of these places, find some children and come along.
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