02.06.2017

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The Simple Politics guide to the election - 6 days to go!
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Here we are. It's been fun, right?

This is going to be an unusual email from us. We're going to speculate on the future. We're going to do a little bit of analysis. It's not really what we do, but I think under the circumstances it might be useful.

Please remember that any predictions we make are likely to be terrible. They are only here as a very vague guide!!!!

A note on the polls.

You will have seen polls that show Labour very close. I get asked all the time if we can trust those polls. Are we heading to a hung Parliment? Are we heading towards PM Corbyn? No idea. We can't trust the accuracy of polls. That was clear in 2015, clear with Brexit and clear with Trump. But they are not totally useless, they do show a general direction of travel. The Conservatives do appear to have lost a bit of support and Labour do seem to have gained quite a lot of support. Possibly from regular Labour voters who didn't want to vote Corbyn, but now have decided to get back onto the good ship Labour.


What might happen on Friday morning?

To win the election, you officially need to win 326 seats. That's just over half the 650 seats available. In reality, you can win with slightly fewer, because Sinn Fein don't take their seats. They had 4 last time, giving a total of 646 taken seats, so a party could have won with 324 seats. The Conservatives got 331 last time out.

So, what are the options, what would happen and how likely is it?

Conservatives win 340ish or more seats - possible
Theresa May gets what she wants. A much bigger majority. The power to push forward her mainfesto.
Corbyn would probably resign. There is a chance that, if he increased Labour vote share despite losing seats (they got 30.5% last time), he would decide to stay on.

Conservatives win 331 - 340ish - we'd say this is the most likely 
Theresa May will call it a victory and get on with it. She may well be privately annoyed she called for the election. It's been a bruising campaign and it wouldn't be much gain. 
Corbyn may resign, he may stay on. If he's increased vote share he'd almost certainly say he'd made progress and stay.

Conservatives win 324 - 330 seats -  possible
This is tricky. There is speculation that Theresa May would resign if the election she calls loses her seats, even if it's a Conservative win. There would be a battle to get manifesto through, especially on things like grammar schools. If May is to be believed, Brexit would be put at risk.
Very unlikely that Corbyn would go.

Conservatives win 318-323 seats - unlikely
So this is officially a hung Parliament. But. It seems likely to us that the Conservatives would do a quick deal with the DUP. They are likely to win 6 - 9 seats in Northern Ireland. Would give enough support for a Conservative government. Theresa May may well find it hard to keep in role. Corbyn would stay put.

Labour win 300 - 323 seats - pretty unlikely
There are a couple of choices here. The SNP said they would work anyone who shares their 'progressive agenda'. The Green Party might want to get involved here. So there could be a coalition. But, Corbyn has suggested he doesn't want a coalition, so he could try to run a minority government, which means winning people round to each vote in Parliament. 
Theresa May would almost certainly resign.

Labour win 324 or more seats - very unlikely
Corbyn becomes Prime Minister on Friday morning. Theresa May resigns. Labour set about trying to deliver their manifesto over the next 5 years.

There are also lots of other narratives, of course, can the SNP hold onto all it's seats? Will Plaid gain in Wales? Can the Greens win a second seat? What's going on in Northern Ireland? Will the Liberal Democrats smash into double figures of MPs? Will the Simple Politics Team manage to stay awake long enough to bring it all to you?

Whatever happens, it looks like being a whole lot more exciting than it looked to be a few weeks ago. Enjoy the final week of campaigning!
Free postage on t-shirts this weekend - I've been assured they'll get to you by election night, too. Go on. Do yourself a favour. Buy one! 
We've running 2 amazing election events. They're both in London. Sorry.

Sunday June 4th, 1pm - What's this General Election thing about anyway?
This is in collaboration with Comedy Club 4 Kids. It's going to be super great. A family show to give a clear understanding of the election & democracy as a whole.

Thursday 8th June, 10pm - 6am - Snap Election Section
This is the return of our block rocking election night party. There is nowhere better to watch the results come in. Decent bar, decent booze, decent people. 

For more details, click on the poster below.
WhatsApp

We have this fantastic WhatsApp group which is a safe haven for political debate. It's a really great place to share ideas and ask questions to around 100 other people who are interested in learning more about politics. Click here to join: https://chat.whatsapp.com/H9StQ7z86nvACAku9iTab0 
Next week's email will be a guide to election night on Thursday. Around lunchtime. There will be no email on Friday. We shall be sleeping. Depending on what happens in the results and everything else, we may email you over the weekend / early the following week. Depends if there is stuff that we can help with!
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